5.3 Forecast report
Expectations for the economy
In its global economic outlook published on January 19, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its forecasts for the development of the global economies in 2026 and 2027.
With regard to the global economy as a whole, the IMF has upgraded its forecast. It now expects global economic growth of 3.3% again in 2026, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than in its fall outlook. For 2027, it expects growth of 3.2%.
However, the forecasts are based on the measures in place at the end of December 2025 and assume that these will remain in place permanently. For example, such forecasts cannot take into account unforeseeable developments such as US President Donald Trump’s threat on February 1, 2026 (since withdrawn) to impose an additional 10% tariff on eight European countries. The same applies to the war in Iran (since late February 2026), with its direct impact on the entire Middle East and indirect global macroeconomic effects that are not reflected in the forecasts.
In United Internet’s target markets in North America, the IMF anticipates growth in 2026 of 2.4% (2025: 2.1%) for the USA, of 1.6% (2025: 1.6%) for Canada, and of 1.5% (2025: 0.6%) for Mexico.
With regard to United Internet’s most important target markets in Europe, the IMF anticipates the strongest growth in 2026 for Poland (3.5%; 2025: 3.3%) and Spain (2.3%; 2025: 2.9%). They are followed by the UK (1.3%; 2025: 1.4%), Germany (1.1%; 2025: 0.2%), France (1.0%; 2025: 0.8%), and Italy (0.7%; 2025: 0.5%).
Market forecast: GDP development of most important economies for United Internet
World
3.2%
3.3%
USA
2.0%
2.4%
2.1%
Canada
1.9%
1.6%
Mexico
1.5%
0.6%
France
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
Spain
2.3%
2.9%
Italy
0.7%
0.5%
Poland
2.7%
3.5%
UK
1.3%
1.4%
Germany
1.1%
0.2%
2027e
2026e
2025
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (Update), January 2026
The IMF’s growth forecast for 2026 is slightly above the German government’s own projection. The cabinet’s Annual Economic Report for Germany adopted on January 28, 2026, forecasts price-adjusted GDP growth of 1.0% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. In the fall of 2025, the government was still expecting GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2026.
According to the German government, however, most of the expected growth is debt-financed and will be short-lived without fundamental reforms to the country's business environment. Structural reforms to facilitate investment, boost productivity, and drive long-term growth are critical.
While part of the reason for this weak growth comes from outside Germany, the answer also lies within the country: according to the government, it is crucial to work more quickly and decisively to improve conditions in Germany. Initial steps taken in this direction have not been sufficient. According to the German government, only stronger, self-sustaining growth can mitigate the impact of geopolitical upheaval and profound structural change, secure the viability of public finances and social systems, and thus maintain social harmony.
According to the annual projection, the domestic economy is expected to gain momentum thanks to rising consumer spending and investment. The federal government anticipates that sustained real wage growth and government relief measures will increase the disposable income of private households. Furthermore, a gradual improvement in labor market prospects over the course of the year is expected to bolster consumer sentiment. After several years of decline, capital expenditures are also expected to gather momentum again in 2026. Public and private spending on equipment and construction is to be stimulated by extensive government programs and improved tax conditions.
Foreign trade remains a structural weak point, however, states the federal government. Global conditions continue to be characterized by geopolitical tensions, increased protectionism, and weaker global demand. In particular, the ongoing latent threat of higher US tariffs and increasing competitive pressure from China are weighing on export prospects. Despite robust demand from the EU single market, the German government expects foreign trade to make a negative contribution to growth once again in 2026.
According to forecasts, global sales of IT and telecommunications in 2026 are expected to grow by 6.4% to € 5.7 trillion. The strongest growth is forecast for the USA (9.2%), followed by China (5.5%), the EU excluding Germany (5.1%), India (4.9%), and the United Kingdom (4.7%). With growth of 4.4%, Germany is two points below the global average, while Japan lags well behind with 1.1%.
Overall, the USA accounts for 41% of global ICT spending, enabling it to further expand its dominant position over China. China (11%) and Japan (4.4%) follow at a considerable distance. Germany has a global market share of 3.9%, the United Kingdom 3.8%, and India 2.4%. The EU excluding Germany accounts for 11% of the global ICT market.
Despite the challenges posed by these adverse economic conditions, further growth is still expected for Germany’s digital economy. The digital association Bitkom, for example, expects the German IT and telecommunications (ICT) market to grow by 4.4% (prior year: +3.9%) to € 245.1 billion in 2026.
Information technology continues to be the main growth driver. According to the latest Bitkom forecast, this market is set to grow by 5.8% (prior year: 5.3%) to € 170.0 billion in 2026.
Within this segment, software sales in particular are expected to grow strongly again, by 10.2% to € 58.3 billion. Software for operating public clouds will account for a significant proportion of this growth. Cloud software alone is expected to generate sales of € 38.3 billion in 2026 – an increase of 16.4% compared to the previous year. Artificial intelligence also continues to gain momentum, although the AI market is still significantly smaller in terms of volume. According to Bitkom calculations, sales of AI platforms are expected to grow by 61% to € 4.1 billion in 2026, following a 62% increase in 2025.
IT services are also expected to grow by 3.5% to € 54.3 billion. Cloud-based services now account for around two-thirds (€ 35.7 billion) of this revenue.
Last but not least, overall growth is also expected for the IT hardware market in 2026. Bitkom anticipates sales growth of 3.9% to € 57.4 billion, driven primarily by investments in digital infrastructure. The most important growth driver remains Infrastructure-as-a-Service (SaaS) – i.e., rented server, network, and storage capacities. This segment is expected to grow by 21.0% in 2026 and thus once again significantly outpace other segments. Workstations (5.1%), mobile PCs (4.5%), and servers (4.3%) are also expected to grow. By contrast, consumer electronics (-3.2%) and tablets (-3.5%) will continue to decline slightly.
The most important ICT markets for United Internet’s business model are the German telecommunications market for its mostly subscription-financed Access division, the global web hosting and cloud computing market, and the German online advertising market for its subscription- and ad-financed Applications division.
The industry association Bitkom expects the German telecommunications market to grow in total by 1.2% (prior year: 1.2%) to € 75.1 billion in 2026. Telecommunications services continue to account for the largest share, with revenues rising by 1.3% (prior year: 1.4%) to € 54.1 billion. By contrast, sales of end-user devices are likely to fall slightly again by 1.2% (prior year: -2.6%) to € 12.5 billion, as smartphones are increasingly being used for longer periods of time. Capital expenditure on telecommunications infrastructure will continue to show much stronger momentum, with growth of 4.6% (prior year: 6.6%) to € 8.5 billion.
Market forecast: telecommunications market in Germany
Telecommunication revenues
75.1
74.2
+ 1.2%
in € billion
Change
Source: Bitkom, January 2026
According to the market report “Web Hosting Services Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis” published by Fortune Business Insights, global sales of web hosting services are expected to grow by 19.7% to around USD 178.8 billion in the fiscal year 2026, following an increase of 18.1% in 2025. Geographically, North America continues to dominate the global market with a share of 41%, followed by Europe. The fastest-growing market, however, is the Asia/Pacific region.
With regard to individual countries, Fortune Business Insights expects revenues of USD 64.9 billion in the USA, USD 16.4 billion in China, USD 11.9 billion in Germany, USD 11.5 billion in Japan, USD 10.8 billion in the UK, and USD 5.1 billion in India in 2026.
Market forecast: global web hosting services
Sales of global Web Hosting Services
178.76
149.30
+ 19.7%
in $ billion
Source: Fortune Business Insights; Web Hosting Services Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis, Update December 2025
Further dynamic growth is expected for the cloud services market in 2026. According to the market report “Cloud Computing Market Size,” Precedence Research expects further global growth for cloud services of 21.2% to around USD 1,106.3 billion.
Market forecast: global cloud services
Global sales of cloud services
1,106.28
912.77
+ 21.2%
Source: Precedence Research; Cloud Computing Market Size, Share, and Growth Forecast, Update October 2025
After a 10.6% increase in online advertising in 2025, PricewaterhouseCoopers anticipates further growth in 2026 with an increase in total market volume (mobile advertising and desktop advertising) of 8.9% to around € 23.4 billion.
Market forecast: total online advertising market in Germany (mobile advertising & desktop advertising) – acc. to PwC
Online advertising revenues
23.36
21.45
+ 8.9%
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, German Entertainment and Media Outlook 2025 – 2029, June 2025
United Internet expects the following development of sales and earnings for the Group in the fiscal year 2026:
The Company will continue to invest heavily in 2026, especially in the expansion of its fiber-optic network and mobile communications network. Cash capex is expected to be around € 600 – 650 million (2025: € 730.8 million).
Following the intra-group sale of 1&1 Versatel GmbH to 1&1 AG in late 2025, United Internet AG will adjust its segment reporting to the new corporate management structure and to the new segmentation of 1&1 in fiscal year 2026. The Consumer Access segment will be called “Consumer & Small Business” in the future, and the 1&1 segment “1&1 Mobile Network,” which was previously included in this segment, will form the new “Enterprises & Networks” segment together with the Business Access business of 1&1 Versatel from 2026 onwards. The Consumer Applications and Business Applications segments will remain unchanged.
Due to its role as a holding company, the earnings of United Internet AG at parent company level are mainly influenced by its investment result (profit transfers and dividends) and the interest result. From the current perspective (subject to possible special items), the Management Board expects a slightly positive net income for the fiscal year 2026 ( 2025: € -260.8 million including non-scheduled special items).
United Internet AG intends to maintain its shareholder-friendly dividend policy based on continuity in the coming years. Dividend payouts will continue to represent approx. 20-40% of adjusted net income from continued operations after minority interests (adjusted net income attributable to “shareholders of United Internet AG” – according to the consolidated statement of comprehensive income) in the future. The prerequisite is that funds are not required for further Company development.
The Management Board of United Internet AG is upbeat about its prospects for the future. Thanks to a business model based predominantly on electronic subscriptions, United Internet believes it is largely stable enough to withstand cyclical influences. And with the investments made over the past few years in customer relationships, new business fields, network infrastructures (in particular the fiber-optic network of 1&1 Versatel and the 1&1 mobile network), and further internationalization, as well as through acquisitions and investments, the foundation for further growth has been broadened.
United Internet will continue to pursue this sustainable business policy in the coming years. In the fiscal year 2026, the segments will focus on the following topics:
At the time of preparing this Management Report, the Company’s Management Board believes that the Company is on track to reach the forecast presented above in the section “Forecast for the fiscal year 2026”.
This Management Report contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations, assumptions, and projections of the Management Board of United Internet AG and currently available information. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and are based upon expectations, assumptions, and projections that may not prove to be accurate. United Internet AG does not guarantee that these forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate and does not accept any obligation, nor have the intention, to adjust or update the forward-looking statements contained in this report.
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